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DETAILS
As marketing manager for Milliken's commercial carpet business, I was called on to develop a system of producing the annual sales forecasts for our marketing managers and salesmen. The forecasts were used to gauge the effectiveness of the managers and salesmen. The managers and sales personnel were called on to submit their inputs to be merged with the more rigorous economic estimates for their respective regions. Unfortunately, analysis of the economic data against past sales results did not show a very good correlation. The nature of the business apparently precluded a good correlation. The results were dominated by a few very large sales, which naturally dominated the attention of those trying to make the sales. We settled for some heuristic adjustments to the sales personnel's inputs.
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