2. Impact Analysis

The tools that support this requirement support the analysis of the impact of human actions (own-side, opposition or neutral parties) on the current situation and on future plans. The human environment that must be considered includes the political environment, the economic environment, and the cultural environment. The tools include both an operational mission component and a non-mission, regional or global, component. Elements include: impact of proposed or current OOTWs on strategy, other missions, such as Major Regional Contingencies (MRCs) and other OOTWs, and Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan (JSCP) tasking; instability analysis - predicting future trouble spots; and visibility for unintended consequences. The tool requirements are provided by the OOTW analysis tasks that they must support.

Provide instability forecast, impact forecast (psycho-social), task # 1.1: Forecast the regions of potential instability, the predicted dates, the related probabilities, and the nature of the instabilities. Forecast the impact of various actions, both those intended to be remedial and otherwise.

Establish cultural awareness, task # 3.11: Establish and maintain awareness of significant cultural issues.

Perform METT-T analysis, task # 3.13: Perform complete METT-T analysis.

Identify centers of gravity, task # 3.14: Identify locations at which minimal actions will produce maximal results, both desirable and undesirable.

Support media / public affairs, task # 3.16: Provide media and public affairs support.

These tools represent a complex model, which must display the range of likely results in an understandable manner. Careful attention must be paid to the user interface. The priority is 1; modelability is Red (R); and data availability is Very Hard (V). Because of uncertainties concerning the best modeling approach, the recommended action is to start research and development on the tools.

Several requirements support similar tasks and are distinguished as follows. The Situational Awareness requirement addresses the presentation of the information specified in the tasks it supports. The three principal information components that are required are the COA analysis, the impact analysis, and the transition planning and tracking of operational data. The Course of Action analysis requirement refers to that part of Impact Analysis having to do with the impact of actions proposed by US military forces on the immediate operation (including long term consequences). The thrust of the analysis is to determine the best course of action possible. The Impact Analysis requirement is generally broader in scope than COA analysis. At the OSD/Joint Staff level, it involves all governmental and non-governmental actions that may create or exacerbate situations that may lead to the necessity of OOTWs. Conversely, it also involves all governmental and non-governmental actions that may prevent or ameliorate situations that could lead to OOTWs. In addition, it involves environmental conditions that may generate situations leading to OOTWs, such as droughts. At the CINC and JTF levels, Impact Analysis may be principally concerned with ensuring that cultural sensitivities are observed, such as prohibitions against male obstetricians. The Transition Planning and Tracking of Operational Data requirement refers to the part of the COA analysis related to ending the military involvement in the operation (transition planning) and maintaining current values for important MOEs.

The table below will be updated as information is posted on the bulletin board for each requirement.

Table 2. Impact Analysis Tools

ID Tasks Addressed
1.1 3.11 3.13 3.14 3.16
ALADUN y y   y  
AVI y y   y  
CYCAM III y        
GEDS y        
KEDS y y      
PANDA y y      
PERICLES   y      
stat analysis          
system dynamics          
StateFailP y        
seminar wargame          

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