Page Last Updated: Monday, 06 June 2016 15:49 EDT, © 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2016

PROJECT: OOTW Toolbox

Dr. Dean S. Hartley III

Challenge:

Create a design for a toolbox of Operations Other Than War (OOTW) tools that is accessible to the various communities that need tools to support them in their missions. The Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) began in 2001 to create an OOTW toolbox, which was subsequently named the Flexible Asymmetric Simulation Technologies (FAST) toolbox.  (These tools are also known as DIME/PMESII or HSCB tools.)

The devil is in the details: the content of OOTWs is tremendously diverse; the dimensionality of the tools themselves is great; and the total resulting dimensionality produces access problems.

• OOTW Content Diversity: Peace Operations, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief, National Integrity Operations, Military Contingency Operations

• Toolbox Dimensions: Application, Time Frame, User, Techniques

• Infrastructure: Delivery Alternatives, Update/Improvement Mechanisms, Cataloging/Retrieval, Connections to Experts/Data, Training

The figure below illustrates the toolbox dimensionality problem, with some candidate tools shown for perspective.

DMSO had collected statements of need, as follow:

• ... M&S tools today to train 4-star lead JTF for OOTW. Current models do not provide the capability to train to all missions ... particularly non-force-on-force, peacekeeping OOTW (EUCOM).

• COCOM battle staffs currently lack a federated simulation that provides the detailed resolution needed in today's asymmetrical warfare environment (JFCOM).

• A standardized, collaborative and distributed crisis action planning tool for analyzing COA, especially in areas of OOTW and SASO (PACOM, TRAC).

• A model that can be used for disaster relief, refugee planning, peacekeeping, counter-drug, and stability operations (SOUTHCOM).

• OOTW Simulation for SOF missions (SOCOM).

The OOTW strategic challenges include the following:

• Combating Terrorism

• Humanitarian Assistance

• Show of Force Operations

• Noncombatant Evacuations

• Military Support to Civil Authorities

• DoD Support to Counter Drug Operations

• Nation Assistance / Support to Counterinsurgency

• Peace Operations (e.g., Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq)

The OOTW operational challenges are represented by the following questions.

• How do you understand the situation?

• What interventions effect changes?

• Which interventions are right - here?

• What support structure is needed to enable these interventions?

• What is the effect of the support structure on the situation?

• Is someone actively working to counter the interventions?

• What effects will result from their interventions?

• How do you measure results?

Accomplishment:

The concept for the tools is shown in the following two figures. The first figure relates the Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic (DIME) levers of power to the situation, described by the Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, and Infrastructure (PMESII) variables, and the measurement of results through a PMESII model, yielding understanding.

The second figure replaces the real world with the simulated reality of computer models.

The project team, which includes Dynamics Research Corporation, Northrop Grumman, Alion, and CoTs determined on a set of goals, as follows:

• Incrementally enhance toolbox functionality

  • Initial support by leveraging readily available tools

  • Add tools and functionality as funding, priorities and concepts allow

  • Functions should eventually cover OOTW Taxonomy/Technical Dimensions

• Provide on the ground and reachback support to users

• Provide access to authoritative force and C4I data and support the rapid update of scenario files

• Provide automation support for time consuming, normally manual operations, enabling its use in the most demanding situations

• Support analysis and decision making, without forcing results on the user.

The project has been a multi-year effort, with shifting focus to implement the incremental functionality enhancement. The figure below illustrates the major activities over time and for each project year. Note these activities included continuing, disciplined, and documented verification and validation (V&V) activities.

The Toolbox

The team created a data flow architecture as shown in the figure below, with control flows, XML data passing, other automated data passing, and manual data passing.

The team has also produced extensive documentation as shown in the next figure. Each tool is individually documented and the toolbox as a whole is documented.

The next figure shows the relationships among the documents.

The project team has produced a prototype toolbox that includes several tools.

The Controller provides a common interface and supports data storage for the toolbox. Unifies the FAST Toolbox Provides Central launch point for tools Links to related OOTW web sites Repository for tool data and associated documents of all types Tool meta-data (i.e., data about data) User friendly Reduces operator processing time

The Diplomatic and Military Operations in a Non-warfighting Domain -US (DIAMOND US) is the US version of the British DIAMOND simulation of OOTW. Low resolution, stochastic model for OOTW analysis at the operational and tactical levels of war. Peace support, humanitarian and gross combat actions represents most, but not all, OOTW functions Logistics and transportation actions Corps down to battalion level Supports data output and analysis Runs interactively and in batch mode Sophisticated tool Requires moderate to high-level skill set to use

The Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) is a high definition combat simulation. High resolution, stochastic model for training and mission rehearsal Can support OOTW analysis at the tactical level Represents many, but not all, OOTW functions Combat-like actions within MOOTW (e.g., peace enforcement, counterinsurgency) Logistics and transportation actions complement OOTW low resolution models (e.g., DIAMOND) Models down to the individual level Supports data output and analysis Runs interactively and in batch mode Sophisticated tool Requires dedicated support to use, due to high-level skill set needs

Pythagoras is an agent-based distillation. Agent-Based model Physics based Stochastic Complex sequences of alternative agent behaviors / triggers Multiple applications Securing targets of interest Terrorist development Environmental concerns Information operations Designed for thousands of Data Farming runs Sophisticated tool User friendly Requires creativity for maximum utility

The Interim Semi-static Stability Model (ISSM) is a Hartley Consulting model to create and maintain awareness of the stability situation in an OOTW. Supports OOTW analysis atthe operational and strategic levels Depicts PMESII situation Evaluates DIME interventions Provides static view of current and past situations Represents most, but not all, OOTW functions Supports data output and analysis Data can be used with other analytic tools (e.g., DIAMOND) Runs interactively Unsophisticated tool Requires Excel expertise User friendly

The Unit Order of Battle Data Access Tool (UOB DAT) is a tool for accessing authoritative unit order of battle data and creating tailored units. Supplies authoritative force data Supports use of C4I extract data Imports & exports data in XML for use by Toolbox models / applications Provides data for FAST Force Structure DIF Provides force tailoring, aggregation, comparison, and other force data manipulation support User friendly Reduces time over manual processing

The XPOD Manipulation Tool (XMT) provides a connection to a live, external C4I system . XMT extracts data from C4I system format Data ingest process enables updates to force data in the toolbox Supports modification of scenario data Enables semi-automated scenario updates Supports the use of "warm" databases Retains common data format (XML XPOD) for other tools User friendly Reduces time over manual processing

The Canadian Forces Landmine Database (CFLD) is a Canadian tool to support mine awareness. Supports MOOTW training and operational employment at the tactical level Designed for individual soldier Supplies pictorial and text data on 350 landmines Allows cross-referencing search of database by description, country of origin, or use Runs interactively Unsophisticated tool User friendly

The primary connection among the tools consists of XML files. eXtensible Markup Language (XML) provides the language that can define all of the parts of the tool data, including the Data Interchange Format (DIF) for files XML Populated DIF (XPOD) provides data files with validated formats Improves reliability & reduces error rates in tool use Supports automated data transfer Provides decreased human processing time XMLtechnology is transparent to the user

The figure below shows the data flows with the XPODS.

Analysis Methodology

The figure below shows a DoD conceptual model of "Irregular" conflict. The "battles" represent different domains of conflict. The interior, dotted arrows connect some of the battles to the Information battle and represent non-kinetic effects. The exterior, solid arrows connect these battles with physical or kinetic influences. This model demonstrates new and important understanding of the nature of OOTW, yet it leaves out one critical "battle," the daily life battle. This last battle represents normalcy. To the extent that normalcy is disrupted by the other battles, the conflict is being lost. On the other hand, the influence of the daily life battle is the only sure way to win the other battles.

The figure below defines notation that is used in the next figure. It shows that, in general, more than one tool is needed to address any one of the battles above (due to the state of the art in understanding and modeling OOTW). The figure also shows how progress in a battle during simulated time is represented in the process view.

This figure shows the conceptual analysis methodology, which may be described as punctuated simulation. The analysis starting assumptions are used in a PMESII tool to define the values of the PMESII variables leading up to the start of the scenario. These values (and other environmental variables, such as forces and geography) are used to initiate the simulation of the appropriate battles through the available tools. If the scenario is divided into geographic regions, with separate simulations for each subregion, these are represented (conceptually) by additional battles. Rather than running the simulations through the whole course of the scenario, however, the simulations are stopped after a period of time and the results are fed into the PMESII tool. This process allows the analysts to collate and understand the results and feed back into the simulations (probably) different restart points due to factors that are missing in each simulation, but are either present in other simulations or are evaluated in the PMESII tool and by the analysts. The process is repeated until the scenario ends. The entire process represented by the figure is repeated for each excursion of the scenario.

The figure below connects the current FAST Toolbox toolset with the battles.

The figure below converts the conceptual analysis methodology into the actual analysis methodology employed with the FAST Toolbox. The Study Guidance in the uppper left corner (1) dictates the need for Final Report in the upper right corner (14). The analysis team must convert this into scenarios and excursions (2). The UOB supplies data for the Force data (3); the ISSM is used to create the Road to War (4); and JCATS and/or Pythagoras are used to develop selected inputs (5). The team uses these to create the Synchronization Matrix (6) and the Mission Analysis (7). The Toolbox supports automated translation of these data through the XMT to the DIAMOND model. DIAMOND is run (8) and its outputs are massaged by utilities (8). Some of these results are passed to JCATS and/or Pythagoras for special cases (10) and most are passed to the ISSM for DIME/PMESII evaluation (11). The results are assessed for technical (tool-based) issues (12). It is at this point that the results from separate representations of geographical subregions (if any) are combined. These results are passed to the Study WG Review for guidance (13). The cycle is repeated for a number of time periods. At the end of the cycle the outputs from these tools are digested by the analysts to produce the Report (14).

A PowerPoint file that shows the flow of the process can be downloaded here.

Foundations

The foundations for the FAST Toolbox as a whole, the individual tools, and the analysis methodology are solid; however, the structures built on that foundation are still in the prototype stage.

The state of theory is mixed. The logistics and transportation are well understood and can be modeled well, depending on the desired logistical protocol (e.g., push or pull). Combat is moderately well understood, despite gaps in detail and failures to model it correctly. DIME/PMESII relationships are poorly understood, with fragmented and often contradictory theory. And there is no unified theory that connects these pieces.

The conceptual foundations take these facts into account. Because validation of DIME/PMESII effects is extremely limited, competing theories and alternative methodologies are needed to define the ranges of results. No single model can handle all of the factors that impact complex situations (whether non-combat or combat) and human mediation and human gap-filling capabilities are required. Hence, the toolbox concept, the punctuated simulation methodology, and the prototype status of the toolbox composition.

The table below shows that some tools are toolbox components becauseof their subject functionality and some are components because they reduce the user workload. It also gives estimates on the user training time required for initial proficiency.

While DIME/PMESII effects define the purpose of the Toolbox, its coverage is not perfect. The figure below illustrates this with a comparison of the current toolbox with a possible future toolbox. Each configuration contains estimates of coverage by each tool of the DIME categories (top rows) and the PMESII categories (bottom rows). In each case (current and future configuration), the estimated total for the tool box (0.75 and 0.91, respectively) is higher than for any of the individual tools because of the synergy that the analysis methodology makes possible.

The following tables identify the modeling approaches used within the toolbox.

Time

Geography

Individuals

Infrastructure

Organizations

Institutions ("Daily Life Battle")

Measures of Merit (MOMs)

Data Requirements

Requirements

Limitations

The tools in the FAST Toolbox are generally designed to cover a single country or region within a country. The analysis methodology allows for the representation of regions or subregions to be combined into a representation of the entire country or region, respectively. This disection may be required because of limits on the resolution obtainable in any given simulation. These limits have not been completely determined as to numbers of entities, nodes, arcs, missions, etc., that are feasible.

There are also limits on the nature of the problems that can be examined with the FAST Toolbox. These limits have also not been completely determined. The current toolset is known to have limited capabilities in the economic area. It is also not designed to handle substantial combat issues with a high degree of confidence. Many problems may require creative approaches to model satisfactorily.

Conclusions

• Implementation
  • There is a good support infrastructure
  • There are currently seven tools
• Limitations
• Modeling Approach
  • Geography: varies by tool
  • Individuals: not part of current toolset
  • Infrastructure: moderately complete
  • Organizations: good start
  • Institutions: supported through the ISSM
• MOMs
  • Standard combat metrics (limited use): JCATS
  • Many PMESII variables: DIAMOND
  • Variable: Pythagoras
  • PMESII outputs leading to civil stability and durable peace: ISSM
• Data Requirements
  • Standard combat-type inputs
  • Additional DIME/PMESII-type inputs
• VV&A
  • V&V of data through the use of authoritative data sources
  • Consistent, disciplined, and documented model V&V
  • Accreditation for a classified study
• Overall
  • TheFAST Toolbox is available and works.
  • The Toolbox provides a unique and needed set of OOTW support functions.
  • The Toolbox, through its complementary components, provides coverage of the spectrum of OOTW activities.
  • The Toolbox provides access to authoritative force data and access to C4I data, allowing rapid update of scenario files.
  • The Toolbox provides automation support for time consuming, normally manual operations, enabling its use in the most demanding of situations.
  • The Toolbox supports analysis and decision making, without forcing results on the user.
  • Unfortunately, the Toolbox simulations are currently too complex for use by a single user and require a well-trained team.

Background:

For more on the details of tool requirements see Analytical Tools for OOTW.

For more on the ISSM see Interim Semi-static Stability Model (ISSM).

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