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Complex Operational and Organizational Problems

DESCRIPTION: Interim Semi-static Stability Model (ISSM) v4.00 (6/7/06)

Dr. Dean S. Hartley III

Project Metadata Keywords
Label Name Other Year DurationYrs
Client Hartley Consulting none Commercial
Dates 2003 3
Employer Hartley Consulting
Partner N/A
Pubs Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) Flexible Asymmetric Simulation Technologies (FAST) Prototype Toolbox: ISSM v3.00 Users' Guide, E-9175U, Dynamics Research Corporation author 2005
Pubs Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) Flexible Asymmetric Simulation Technologies (FAST) Prototype Toolbox: ISSM v3.00 Analysts' Guide, E-9176U, Dynamics Research Corporation author 2005
Pubs Operations Other Than War (OOTW) Flexible Asymmetric Simulation Technologies (FAST) Prototype Toolbox: ISSM v4.00 Users' Guide, Dynamics Research Corporation author 2006
Pubs Operations Other Than War (OOTW) Flexible Asymmetric Simulation Technologies (FAST) Prototype Toolbox: ISSM v4.00 Analysts' Guide, Dynamics Research Corporation author 2006
Pubs ISSM v4.00 Programmers' Guide, Hartley Consulting author 2006
Pubs Interim Semi-static Stability Model, v3.0 programmer 2004
Pubs Interim Semi-static Stability Model, v2.0 programmer 2004
Pubs Interim Static Stability Model, v1.0 programmer 2003
Pubs Interim Semi-static Stability Model, v4.0 programmer 2006
Configuration management
Consequence Management
Data Verification & Validation
Geopolitical analysis
Global War on Terrorism (GWOT)
Historical combat data research
Human factors
Human, Social, Cultural Behavior (HSCB) Modeling
Impact analysis
Irregular Warfare (IW)
Modeling, Simulation & Gaming (MSG)
Network analyses
Operations Other Than War (OOTW)
Software issues
Stability Operations (SASO, SSTR)
Verification, Validation & Accreditation (VV&A)
Warfare modeling

Tool Description:

The ISSM is implemented as an Excel spreadsheet and describes impact on the "civil stability and durable peace" of values for a set of factors within a single country or region. It provides instantaneous impact but does not allow internal feedback loops. Feedback loops are supplied by external events recorded at the next time step (typically a week or a month).

History: The first version of the ISSM was created in 2003 to fill a need for a tool to track PMESII variables in real operations, such as Bosnia, Afghanistan, Haiti, and Iraq. Later versions added the ability to track the effects of DIME interventions and to support the tracking and understanding of simulated situations for analysis. For more information on DIME/PMESII models, also known as HSCB models, follow the link.

Focus: In an operational setting, it is a stand-alone tool that supports measuring, tracking, projecting and understanding the status of a real OOTW, phase 0 through phase 5. In an analysis setting, the ISSM receives its information about the OOTW from a simulation, such as DIAMOND, and other sources of data about the simulated situation and supports measuring, tracking, projecting and understanding the status of a simulated OOTW.

Architecture: The ISSM consists of four Excel workbooks with VBA code: a Controller to coordinate the operations of the system; a Preprocessor to support custom logic in converting available data into ISSM inputs; a Main program to evaluate the outputs; and a Postprocessor to support custom logic in converting the outputs into any additional, user-specified outputs.

Summary: The ISSM is a PMESII model that supports measuring, tracking, projecting and understanding the status of fragile states, including any DIME activities before, during, and after any intervention.

PMESII Mapping:

The ISSM tracks the situation status through its major output variable, level of civil stability and peace, and 7 core sector variables: effectiveness and fairness of government, legitimacy of government, economic status, satisfaction of basic needs, safety and security, internal unrest, and popular tolerance of the status quo. The input variables characterized below feed into intermediate variable, which yield the core sectors and the final output:

PMESII Sub-Cat Status Variables Intervention (DIME) Variables
Political   8 23
  Government 1: existence 8: creating, supplying and training governments
  Politics 1: opposition party espousing force 4: monitoring, mediating, and transferring power
  Rule of Law 6: crime, corruption, police and prison structures 9: creating and training police, monitoring corruption and human rights, war crimes investigations, legal and penal systems
  Security   2: confidence building and security for Stability activities
Military   5 10
  Conflict   5: demilitarized zones, weapons control, security for PO activities, force security
  Government 2: armed forces structure, regime sponsored non-military forces 5: creating and training military, demobilization, security assistance, safeguarding government
  Other 3: insurgents, terrorists, paramilitary  
Economic   8 14
  Agriculture   2: buy local, new planting
  Crime 4: drugs  
  Energy   1: energy importation
  Finance 2: financial system, foreign investment 5: microfinance, insurance, interbanks, currency, investment capital
  Government   4: commercial law, policy, privatization
  Jobs 1: employment level 1: public works
  Other 1: natural resource management 1: manage natural resources
Social   11 16
  Basic Needs 1: property ownership 7: water distribution, food importation and distribution, temporary shelter, coordinating NGOs
  Education 2: education infrastructure and tailored toward jobs 4: education facilities, supplies, and teachers
  Health   2: medical treatment, health infrastructure
  Movement 4: migration, displaced population, expatriates 2: reducing movement, performing resettlement
  Safety 2: factional disputes 1: security for HA activities
  Other 2: perception of representation, spiritual needs  
Information   2: free domestic and international media 4: rebuild telecommunications, journalist training, benign public information, negative impacts
Infrastructure   1 11
  Energy   4: rebuild electricity production and distribution, oil production and pipelines
  Transportation   5: rebuild airports, seaports, roads, rails, bridges
  Water 1: distribution infrastructure 2: rebuild water lines, water and sewage treatment


General Information:

Modification Capabilities:

The ISSM provides for two levels of modification.

The simplest level is available for preprocessing status data and for postprocessing the outputs. The Preprocessor supports the creation of simple weighted average type conversions of user defined inputs into the required ISSM inputs. This facility allows for an order of magnitude increase in the number and detail of the inputs (with a concomitant increase in data requirements). The Postprocessor supports the creation of new outputs using the same weighted average type conversions, which use any of the ISSM inputs, outputs, or intermediate variables in generating user-defined outputs. The Analysts’ Guide provides complete and detailed instructions. The skills required include the ability to follow somewhat complex instructions and the analytic skills needed to define the desired relationships.

The more difficult level is available for preprocessing data, both status and intervention types. The Preprocessor and the ISSM Main program support the creation of custom spreadsheet models that automatically feed the correct inputs into the program. The skills required begin with those of the simple modification level and add the need for spreadsheet model building.

The Terms and Conditions include a request for passing such modifications back to the user community.

PMESII Usability:

Simulation Type Deterministic model (not simulation)
How Used Analysis and real-world situational awareness
Who is User Analyst or operator, with reports possible to much higher levels
Behavior Modeled Track the PMESII status of a country or region over time (simulated or real-world)
Modeling Paradigm Essentially influence diagram
Security Classification Unclassified (with data added, naturally can be at any level)
Connectivity Stand alone system
Training Audience

Individual or small-large team
4 hour familiarization briefing for managers
5 day training for analyst/operators

Granularity Country or region
Operational Level Strategic or Operational
Time Scale Typically one to 10 years
Speed Near instantaneous for each date entry
Configuration Time Requirements

Equipment setup: negligible

Setup Time Requirements Scenario setup: assuming modeling 6 months prior to “present”: less than a week
Operation Time Requirements Operation time: from 5 minutes to an hour to enter the data for a given date; then a wait for real-world time (or simulation time) to pass to obtain data for the next date
Current Customers

            HQ USEUCOM ECJ8 (used for Situation Awareness)
            JCS/J8 WAD (used in classified study)
            NPS MOVES Institute (used for teaching DIME/PMESII modeling)
            DARPA (used in developing advanced DIME/PMESII models)
            DRC (used in several unclassified studies)
            Hartley Consulting
Other:  Universities and private individuals




Strengths: DIME/PMESII operations are extremely complex, with ill-understood interactions. At the highest levels, there is a need for understanding the needs for and results of shaping activities and the results of Irregular operations. There is also an unfulfilled need for M&S of such situations. The ISSM can be and is being used to monitor the countries within a COCOM’s AOR. It can also be used to monitor and understand the overall results of ongoing operations. Further, it can be used to monitor and understand the results of simulated operations.

The ISSM provides a simple and automated means for understanding and tracking the results. The ISSM is a high-level, easily operated, small footprint model of DIME/PMESII operations that has a fair degree of validity. It runs extremely rapidly.

Limitations: The ISSM is not a simulation. It requires periodic observations of the state of the real or simulated world. The validity of the ISSM is subject to the current limited state of understanding of the true interactions of PMESII variables.

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